Chelsea (front) train at the Estadio De Dragao in Porto ahead of Tonights Final. Image via Reuters
Manchester City and Chelsea face off in the season’s final (and most important) game of the season, as the two English clubs play each other in the Champions League Final in Porto, having been rearranged from Istanbul due to COVID restrictions.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have been absolutely flying as of late, winning both the Premier League and the League Cup in the last two months; winning the UCL would ensure a historic treble.
Despite initially looking bright under Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea have stuttered and faltered in recent weeks, only winning one of their last four in all competitions. This run includes a crushing FA Cup Final defeat to everyone’s favourite underdog, Leicester City. However, they will take some solace knowing they beat City right at the start of May, the last time these two teams met, as well as the fixture before that.
Manchester City
Manchester City celebrating against PSG in the Semi-Finals. Credit: The Mirror
Whilst City have won trophies in recent weeks, there have been some surprise results thrown in: a total capitulation against Brighton that allowed the Seagulls to claw back a two-goal deficit and win the game 3-2, as well as the aforementioned losses the Chelsea, both in the league and the FA Cup Semi-Final. The latter ended any chance of the ‘Quadrouple’ so many tipped them for.
Aguero’s departure from the club has been well documented, with the Argentine set to be announced as a Barcelona player just days after the final, and while his performance off the bench against Everton was inspiring, I wouldn’t expect a Hollywood ending from him on Saturday night. Still not totally fit, it’s understood that Aguero won’t, and instead Pep will use either Ferran Torres as the furthest man forward or employ a false number-9; the latter of which has been used to great effect this season while Aguero was injured and Jesus was misfiring. Don’t be surprised to see 21-year old Phil Foden operate in that role in the final, with De Bruyne and Silva making up a midfield two in the absence of Ilkay Gundogan, who seems to have pulled his thigh in training this week.
City have had stars all over the pitch for quite some time now, but I think this season things have clicked for some better than in previous years. Mahrez has had his best season in sky blue, with his decision-making significantly improving in front of goal. Meanwhile, full-backs Cancelo and Walker have adapted to the ‘inverted’ full-back roles that Pep just loves to implement, with the former offering plenty from both sides in an admirable campaign.
All of that is without mentioning the prospective Premier League Player of the Season, Ruben Dias - his role in the City defensive trifecta with Stones and Ederson have made scoring against Manchester City a luxury for most this season. The only cause for concern from a City perspective is that in recent years, Pep has been criticised for ‘over-thinking’ and trying to beat his opposing number in squad selection and tactics. In reality, if he sticks to the formula that’s worked out for them all of this season, Pep and City shouldn’t have a problem in dispatching Tuchel and Chelsea.
Chelsea
Mason Mount celebrates with Pulisic after scoring in the second leg against Real Madrid. Credit: Chelsea FC on Twitter
There’s no denying that Chelsea have seen a marked improvement since Tuchel took over from Frank Lampard in January, and while they look to half-way to becoming a formidable side, frailties in all areas of the pitch have let them down this season. Despite the improvement, Chelsea have stuttered recently, losing to Arsenal, Leicester in the FA Cup Final and Aston Villa on the last day of the season; they have won just one in their last four games.
Chelsea’s main problems have been Infront of goal this season, with new signing Timo Werner consistently missing chances or having goals disallowed. Staggeringly, the German has had more goals disallowed (15) than he’s actually scored (12) with Giroud scoring twice more than Werner in European Competitions this season. Much like City, there is a real possibility that Chelsea start the game without an out-and-out striker, rather opting for the mercurial Kai Havertz in the false number-9 role, shifting Werner out to the left-hand side with either Pulisic or Ziyech on the other flank.
As a result of their forwards failing to make their mark, Chelsea have had to rely on goals from midfield. Jorginho was their highest goal-scorer (7) in the league this season, and Mason Mount notched nine in all competitions. It will be interesting to see how City deal with Chelsea’s dynamism in midfield, with Mount making late runs into the box and Kante’s tireless running, will it be too much for Fernandinho or Rodri?
Defensively, Chelsea have opted for both a 3-4-2-1 and a standard 4-3-3 this season, with the former being used more favourably since Tuchel has came into the job. The 3-4-2-1 relies on wing-backs being used to flank up and down whilst maintaining defensive cover with a standard back three: Rudiger, Silva and Zouma/James. This back five will be critical in stifling City’s attacks; without a true number 9, they’ll try and fashion chances in wide areas with Foden dropping off to receive the ball.
The Verdict
Despite Chelsea coming out victorious on the last two occasions against City, it is City’s to lose this evening. If Kante/Kovacic can frustrate De Bruyne in the middle, pressing him and restricting his time on the ball they may have a chance but I feel that this will be a test too far for the West Londoners. Expect City to control possession, shifting the ball left to right on the edge of Chelsea’s box to find an opening, before the wide players come short and try and take the full-backs on. It will be a fascinating final either way, and as we saw on Wednesday, every team has a chance.
Andy’s Prediction: 3-1 City.
Sam's Prediction: 1-1, Chelsea win on Penalties
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