Yes, if you read my preview to the series as a whole, you'll know I got it completely wrong for the first match. But when the second test came around, India's dominance on a spinning wicket proved me somewhat right. So let's take a little look at the third match between England and India, and see if I can shed some light about the upcoming day-night test:
The Series So Far:
After predicting England's openers would find it tough in spinning conditions, Rory Burns and Dom Sibley held firm for 63, before Joe Root did Joe Root things by making yet another double hundred. Dom Bess, despite my suggestion he was not good enough for India's batting lineup, took 4 wickets at a better average than Ravichandran Ashwin. The game was effectively over by England's second innings, as they romped to a controlled victory in the first match.
Joe Root scores a double century in his 100th Test match. Source: Sky Sports, Credit: BCCI
After this match, few pundits were willing to admit that England had the upper hand over India, and they were proved right. The spinning dustbowl of a wicket served up in Chennai proved too much for an inexperienced England side, as they failed to stop Rohit Sharma batting them out of the game with a tremendous 161 in the first innings. England were never really in the game, as their bowling inaccuracies were compounded by a lack of ability with the bat - Ben Foakes' 42* being the only 'highlight' of a poor batting display. Meanwhile, Ashwin trails just Sir Ian Botham after scoring his third century in the same match as achieving five wickets in an innings; he has three to Botham's five.
The Conditions
Of course, it's summer in India, so I shouldn't need to tell you that it'll be hot, and damn hot. The forecast for the five days expects heat of up to 36 celcius, which will be tough for either side if they spend days at a time in the field. The game will also be the first played at world cricket's largest ground, the Motera stadium, as it increased its capacity from 54,000 to 110,000.
The greenness of the pitch in Ahmedabad will undoubtedly turn to dust as the third Test looms. Credit: ECB.
Now, images of the pitch were released over the weekend, showing a grassy wicket akin to those that you might find at Lord's. India, you teasers. You can bet your bottom dollar that the wicket will be shaved, similar to the surfacd that we saw do the job for Virat Kholi's side in Chennai. Jimmy Anderson will have to pop his eyes back into place after seeing the green pitch, and be forced to work hard to get anything out of the wicket we expect to be produced for this one. Or, will he?
The Pink Ball
Unlike the first two matches of this series, the upcoming test in Ahmedabad will be a day-night one. And that means, the pink ball will be in use. Whilst there has only been 15 day-night matches since its first use for tests in 2015, there is a decent amount of data to draw some conclusions on its differences to a normal day of test cricket.
The Pink ball's first uses around the world after its international debut in Women's ODI cricket in 2009. Credit: ESPNCricInfo Ltd.
The ball is generally considered to swing more under the floodlights, as well as the requirements for the wicket to be left slightly greener to avoid damage to the alternative ball. Also, the pink ball for this test will be the SG ball, rather than the oft-used Kookabura, which is likely to be even more unpredictable.
You might be thinking this should suit England more than India, and you'd probably be right. In their first match using the pink ball, England's seamers dismissed the West Indies for two sub-par scores of 168 and 137. Anderson also took 5-43 in the first Ashes match that used the pink ball later that year. But let's not forget, Ishant Sharma's 5-22 against Bangladesh in India's first day-nighter shows India's ability to adjust to the alternative conditions.
Even this early into the pink ball's use, both sides have had their troubles, and they are well documented. England fell to their worst ever score against New Zealand in 2018 by scoring just 58 runs in a dismal performance; pacers Trent Boult and Tim Southee reduced the side to 27-9. Perhaps more known, and recent, is India's collapse against Australia in Adelaide. Collapsing in just 21.2 overs, Josh Hazlewood (5-8) and Pat Cummins (4-21) handed India their lowest ever runs total in Test cricket at just 36 - though this was without their captain Kholi.
The pink ball seems to have a tendency to rip through legitimate batting lineups, but it has also helped to produce decent runs on occasion for these sides. Alistair Cook scored 243 alongside Joe Root's 136 against the West Indies, whilst Virat Kholi's heads up India's best run totals with a century of his own with the pink ball. So day night tests seems to bring both the best, and worst out of Test cricket.
England
The rest and rotation policy strikes again as England are without Moeen Ali, who was England's highest run scorer and wicket taker in the second Test, as well as Jos Buttler who continues to take a break until the white ball series. Jonny Bairstow and Mark Wood are all back in contention, alongside Jofra Archer and Zak Crawley's return from injury.
A masked-up Jonny Bairstow prior to England's Tests in Sri Lanka. Credit: ECB
I wouldn't be overly surprised if Chris Woakes' added batting at 8 brings him into contention if it is a seaming wicket, but I'm expecting Anderson and Archer to head the attack with Ben Stokes as a third (underused) option. Leach and Bess will probably complete the bowling unit if the surface looks like that of Chennai. If not, perhaps we will see just Jack Leach alongside three seamers.
Bairstow will probably slot in at three again, as he performed well in Sri Lanka so should keep his place, especially as he was 'rested' by England rather than dropped. Root and Coach Chris Silverwood will have to make a tough decision on opening with Crawley or Burns alongside Dom Sibley, as neither have really been in inspired form this winter.
Possible lineup: Sibley, Burns, Bairstow, Root (c), Stokes, Pope, Foakes (wk), Bess/Woakes, Archer, Leach, Anderson.
India
Why change a winning formula? India look like they'll keep the same XI going into the day-night test, with perhaps Jasprit Bumrah coming in to bolster the seam attack in place of either Kuldeep Yadav or Mohammed Siraj. Hardik Pandya may be the only other unforced change as a bowling all-rounder if the wicket is greener. The state of the pitch will undoubtedly influence whether both sides play the extra spinner or seamer. Shubman Gill may need to pass a late fitness test open the batting, as KL Rahul and Mayank Agarwal wait in the wings.
Jasprit Bumrah under the floodlights with the pink ball could be a scary prospect for England's batsmen. Credit: BCCI
Expect India to come to the races very quickly in the third test, buoyed by their second match victory, as well as playing in world cricket's largest ground for the first time. No doubt there will be a smattering of fans about the place, something that Virat Kholi suggested helps the team to be "on the money" in his post-match interview.
Possible lineup: Gill, Rohit, Pujara, Kholi (c), Rahane, Pant (wk), Ashwin, Patel/Pandya, Sharma, Siraj, Bumrah.
Who Comes Out on Top?
I'm going to be tentative here, given that my last prediction was so woeful. Considering England's dominant display in the first test, I don't think anyone would be surprised if they managed to take another game off India, especially if the pitch has any green on it. Anderson's form and Archers pace could take advantage of any sign of difficult conditions in Ahmedabad, as England's bowlers look to replicate their day-night bowling exploits of games gone by. There is only the small matter of an Indian batting attack, with even number eight Ashwin proving his century-making ability. Kholi making a century would also complete your India vs England bingo cards.
Of course, to have a chance in this one, England's batting stars will need to be on top form. The openers will have to keep the new ball quiet, whilst the big hitters in Root, Bairstow and Stokes might need to make a century or two to get England on top. With the prospect of Bumrah and Sharma running in under the lights with the new ball, this might be a little more difficult than the first test. The showing of Axar Patel on debut last time out provides another spin problem for England, if they go with him.
Only one side has ever won a day-night test away from home, as Sri Lanka have done it twice 'away' at Pakistan in the UAE. There is also the added bonus of the World Test Championship final place, which England can only achieve with two futher victories.
Either way, the second day-night test in India should be one for the record books; this one is evenly balanced.
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