Who Will Win the 2021 NBA Championship: Judging the Contenders

Now, what is more interesting in any sport than talking about winners, or potential winners. Judging the season so far, I think there are six genuine contenders that could end up lifting the 2021 NBA Championship in June. One disclaimer before we get started; whilst the Phoenix Suns do sit second in the Western Conference, I do not believe they have a case for the Championship due to their relative youth and inexperience at playoff level (Chris Paul aside). Without further ado, let’s get into it.

Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James (L) and Anthony Davis (R) celebrate with the Finals MVP and the Larry O'Brien trophy respectively in 2020. Source: nba.com

Beginning with the 2020 Champions, the LA Lakers currently sit third in the Western Conference with a 25-13 record. For me, the Lakers still sit (just) as my championship favourites because of one man: LeBron James. A 36-year-old LeBron is still the best player in the league, and with the experience of 10 Finals appearances in his bag, you should never bet against King James. With a healthy Anthony Davis in tow for the playoffs, the Lakers have one of the best dynamic duos of all time.

Coasting, as he generally does in the regular season, LeBron’s Lakers have been hampered by the loss of AD but are probably more of a one or two seed with him in the side. Their role players, Dennis Schroder (14.8), Montrezl Harrell (13.9) and Kyle Kuzma (11.8), are averaging a useful number of points, despite the fact that the Marc Gasol experiment hasn’t quite worked out. On that front, I would not be surprised if the Lakers bring in cheap Andre Drummond or a younger Centre to clean up these issues before the trade deadlines. Other than this area I think the Lakers have improved admirably with the scoring and tenacity of Schroder, as well as Kuzma’s evolution and Harrell’s bench productivity. Talen Horton-Tucker is also one to watch.

LeBron recently said that Horton-Tucker's game is "playoff ready" as he places his trust in the youngster.

I think, other than LeBron’s experience and sheer class, the reason I have them as my favourites is their defensive ability and matchups. James and Davis’ defensive flexibility means they can guard all three frontcourt positions as well as some shooting guards. A closing backcourt of Schroder and Caldwell-Pope are also good defensively, with only the centre position as a weakness. With the defensive tenacity turned up in the playoffs, this ability is crucial.

On the flipside, there is not another team on this list that could feasibly defend both LeBron and AD – Philadelphia are perhaps most prepared with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid but I’m still taking LeBron’s power over the less well-built Simmons. Their experience of last year, as well as possessing the league’s best-built system mean that the Lakers remain my number one contender for the 2021 Championship, but only just.

My Championship Chance: 25% - SkyBet Odds: 11/4

Los Angeles Clippers

Paul George (L), Patrick Beverley (C) and Kawhi Leonard (R). Source: The Athletic.

A team with Kawhi Leonard can never be counted out of the Championship race, as shown by his clutchness with the 2019 Raptors. Having said that, it really did not click with the Clippers last year as they sunk out of the playoffs to the Nuggets, with ‘pandemic’ Paul George dropping poor performances on a nightly basis. For that reason, they are far from my favourites on this list, but are definitely amongst the six best teams in the league.

Kawhi Leonard has averaged 26.6 points this season – and we’ve come to expect nothing else – whilst Paul George has returned to prove his haters wrong by averaging two more points than last year on career high shooting splits of 49%/44%/88% from the field, three and the free throw line respectively. This duo, with PG13 an All-Star again, have looked great. Their shooting prowess is mirrored by the rest of their team, as the Clippers are the most effective three-point shooting team in the league with 41.7% of their shots dropping from behind the arc. Off-season acquisitions Serge Ibaka and Nicolas Batum look to have strengthened the Clippers frontcourt in the absence of Montrezl Harrel, whilst Patrick Beverley and Lou Williams have been solid NBA players for a number of seasons. So, with two All-Stars and a contributing supporting cast, why aren’t they one of my favourites?

Marcus Morris Snr (pictured) and teammate Luke Kennard are both in the top seven highest percentage three-point shooters in the NBA this season with at least three attempts per game. Both Clippers' members are shooting above 45%. Source: nba.com

For starters, there are better teams out there; the Clippers are not the most well-oiled outfit, as shown by the shaky reports of team dissatisfaction of Leonard and George’s preferential treatment last year. Another issue last year was the lack of a playmaking guard, as Leonard complained throughout the year, and the Clippers still haven’t fixed this issue. It’s a wonder why Isiah Thomas has not been picked up yet. Whilst they are second in offensive efficiency, they currently sit 18th in defensive efficiency – not a particularly useful stat considering the stars they’ll have to guard in the playoffs.

One saving grace is their league-leading free throw percentage (84.3%) – far better than the bottom six Bucks and Lakers. This is perhaps a more important stat than their 3P%, considering the increase in foul calls in the playoffs and greater closing out on three pointers. Regardless, Paul George showed himself to not be a clutch performer in the playoffs last year, and I am not sure Kawhi can backpack the Clippers on his own.

My Championship Chance: 12% - SkyBet odds: 5/1

Utah Jazz

Rudy Gobert (L) and Donovan Mitchell (R) are as close as the Jazz have to superstars. Source: The Hive Sports.

Well, the Utah Jazz are such a difficult team to comment on at this point. After having a record of 24-5, the Jazz have lost five of their last nine games, including losses to the Pelicans and Warriors. At risk of sounding like Shaq, with Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert the Jazz are probably the only team on this list without a genuine superstar. That being said, their position at the top of the powerhouse Western Conference definitely gets you into the contender conversation.

Let’s start with the plusses. The Jazz have the top rebounder and one of the best defensive presences in the league in Rudy Gobert, two All-Star guards in Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley (just) and the favourite for the sixth man of the year trophy Jordan Clarkson. Joe Ingles currently has the best true shooting percentage in the league, whilst the rest of the Jazz side have a great amount of NBA experience: everyone bar Donovan Mitchell is at least 27 in their nine-man rotation. Utah are third in both offensive and defensive rating, with their consistency also shown in their league-high average margin of victory at 8.42. The Jazz are a long-established set up with a great coach and are flexible defensively; Conley, Bogdanovic, O’Neale , Favours and Gobert are all positive defenders. Gobert especially frightens players out of the paint.

Rudy Gobert's impressive block on on one of the most impressive paint players in the league in Zion Williamson. Source: Evangelion Hoops via Youtube.

And now the bad. Well, there’s nothing BAD about the Jazz per say, but they’re just not exceptionally, mind-blowingly amazing. Donovan Mitchell’s ridiculous battle with Jamaal Murray in the first-round last year certainly showed his grit but Utah still bounced out of the first round. Whilst they were shooting lights out to open the season, this has cooled off recently as the Jazz only have four players shooting over 40% from three (for comparison the Clippers have seven on at least three attempts pg).

Jamal Murray and Donovan Mitchell became the first opponents to both score 50+points in a playoff game. Source: BarDown.com

I just don’t trust the Jazz in crunch time to have enough to topple any of the other candidates on this list. If they can avoid the Clippers or Lakers until the Conference Finals then maybe they could steal a couple of games by moving the ball in the absence of a superstar, but their comparable lack of talent may prove detrimental in crunch time. I’m just not sure, despite their regular season prowess, that I trust the Jazz to make it out of the West.

My Championship Chance: 8% - SkyBet Odds: 7/1

Milwaukee Bucks

Source: @Giannis_An34 via Twitter

There’s no doubt that the Bucks’ roster has got better this year. Not as much as if they hadn’t botched the Bogdan Bogdanovic trade, but still better. The playmaking and defensive ability of Jrue Holiday adds some much-needed toughness to the ranks, that already has two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton on the books. But if the last couple of seasons has taught me one thing, it’s to never rely on the Bucks in crunch time.

Whilst it may be the case with every other team on this list, the Bucks have probably not looked as good in the regular season this year as they did last. They have already lost 14 games so far this year; only three fewer than they lost in 73 games in the 2019/20 season. That being said, Holiday has started just 26 of the Bucks’ 38 games through injury or Covid protocols and thus has struggled to incorporate himself into Milwaukee’s system. Come playoff time I expect Holiday to have fixed these small issues, however. Middleton, despite being left out of all-star considerations this year, has had just as productive of a year as last season, whilst Giannis is the most dominant player in the league when he’s allowed to be. But that is where some of the issues lie and have lied in past playoff series’: coaching.

Jrue Holiday was traded to the Bucks for Eric Bledsoe, Grant Hill and multiple draft picks. Credit: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today.

Having the reining MVP on your team is undoubtedly an upside, but only when you use him right. Coach Mike ‘Bud’ Budenholzer seems unwilling to use Giannis in the pick-and-roll, electing instead for him to act as a point forward in a similar way that LeBron James plays. Without the playmaking of LeBron, Giannis ends up looking clunky in trying to find a pass or his own way to the basket. However, as the big man in the pick-and-roll, Giannis would be a ridiculous lob threat or even more threatening if he can get the ball inside the arc rather than trying to facilitate beyond it.

The first two plays of this video should be how the Bucks look to get the best out of their MVP. Source: NBATV via Twitter.

Come playoff time, Coach Bud seems unwilling to play his stars more than 35 minutes a game, with teams predictably able to take advantage when Middleton and Antetokounmpo are off the court. For reference, Giannis last year averaged 30.8 minutes per game in the playoffs, whilst injury-hampered Jimmy Butler still managed to notch up 38.4mpg. But with Giannis' minutes already three higher than last year’s regular season, I really hope Coach Bud has got the message. If he has learnt from last year’s exploits, there is no doubt the Bucks could win the 2021 NBA Championship.

My Championship Chance: 15% - SkyBet: 7/1

Brooklyn Nets

Kyrie Irving (L), Kevin Durant (C) and James Harden (R). Credit: AFP.

James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. There’s not too much more needed to convince you of the Nets’ contender potential, but I’ll endeavour to make the case clearer anyway. I wrote earlier this year that I was concerned for the Nets’ title chances after the Harden trade, and I am more than happy to concede I was a little wrong. For this very reason, they are probably the favourites to come out of the Eastern Conference.

A backcourt of James Harden and Kyrie Irving is an embarrassment of offensive riches, with both superstars great ball-handlers, finishers and scorers, and James Harden an especially great passer with 11.2 assists per game for the Nets so far. For this very reason, Harden has become the Nets’ second highest triple-double recorder in history with nine after just 25 games. With Kevin Durant on the team too, the Nets are stacked with experienced talent, but it is the other areas that have surprisingly looked good. DeAndre Jordan has not been horrible to start the season as a good lob threat with James’ passing, whilst Joe Harris has proved his credentials as a top five shooter in the NBA. Jeff Green is perhaps the best journeyman in the league and Bruce Brown is an exceptional pickup for the Nets. The 6’4 guard is currently playing as the Nets’ centre on offense, and is a reliable outlet pass as well as his exceptional ability to crash the glass and make hustle plays. I can imagine Blake Griffin will probably take on this role when he comes into the side.

Harden and Jordan's chemistry is evident. Source: @WorldWideWob via Twitter.

That all sounds great, and means the Nets have the highest rated offense in league history. Buuuuut they are 24th in defensive rating, allowing their opponents the 6th highest number of points per game (115). This will undoubtedly have to change if they are going to be successful in the playoffs. Steve Nash has recognised their increased production on the defensive end, but still realises the need for Brooklyn’s stars to lock in. The issue I have with the Nets is they will undoubtedly score big points in the playoffs, but their defence means that games might come down to a lottery of who can score more baskets – this isn’t a reliable tactic.

I’m also not sure they can guard the top team’s stars very well; they have no one to stop Giannis or Embiid in a playoff series. A possible matchup against the Lakers, with one of LeBron or AD guarded by Jeff Green, Blake Griffin or even DeAndre Jordan is not ideal. Having said this, the Nets just have to get their defence working at league average to be a very attractive bet for the NBA Championship.

My Championship Chance: 20% - SkyBet Odds: 3/1

Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid (L) and Ben Simmons (R) are probably having their best seasons this year. Credit: Matt Slocum/Associated Press.

The 76ers, still an unreliable option in the ‘contender’ category, are still there or thereabouts in my books. With Joel Embiid playing at an MVP level, and Ben Simmons in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year, Philadelphia are always going to be formidable. But with Daryl Morey as the GM, they seem to be realising some of their potential as the current number one seed in the East.

Now, I really like the Sixers. Whilst the floor spacing is still a bit odd at times with Ben Simmons’ inability to shoot, Embiid’s ability to shoot the step-back three (yes you read that right), certainly shows things are going in the right direction. Morey’s acquisitions of Seth Curry and Danny Green give the Sixers more outside shooting than last year, whilst Rookie Tyrese Maxey looks to be on of the steals of the draft as his 39-point game against the Nuggets would suggest. Simmons and Embiid have missed a combined 15 games so far this year, but that hasn’t stopped the Sixers from looking formidable with whatever group are on the floor. Aside from their two superstars, the Sixers also have possibly the best player not considered for an All-Star selection in Tobias Harris; he is the second highest scorer on the roster and is a dynamic bucket-getter. Harris is just 0.12% from the line away from being part of the 50/40/90 club on 15 shots a game. Philadelphia have a number of players able to go and get a bucket on any given night and having the powerhouse Embiid leading the frontcourt is a luxury; I can’t think of too many teams that could guard him in a seven-game series.

I'm not sure theres a player in the league that can defend Embiid if he adds this to his game regularly. Source: @AustinKent via Twitter.

As far as the negatives are concerned, I can’t really think of too many for Philly. They might not have the three-headed monster that Brooklyn do, but with shooters dotted around their top two guys I think it’s a balanced offense. I would perhaps be concerned with their lack of a ball-handling shooter to go and make his own shot in crunch time, with Simmons’ lack of shooting ability. But he has made two of seven threes this year, so that’s something. They also just haven’t managed to get it done in the playoffs in recent years, as Simmons was hurt last year and Kawhi’s ridiculous shot sunk the Sixers in the 2019 Eastern Conference semis.

I would argue they are much more prepared this year after off-loading Horford, the increased production of Shake Milton and Harris, Embiid’s MVP-calibre season and the introduction of veterans like Dwight Howard. They are also a switchable defensive powerhouse with the highest defensive rating in the league. But I’ve believed in the Sixers before, and we know how the last two seasons went.

Championship Chance: 15% - SkyBet Odds: 16/1

The Championship race is about as hotly contested as we have seen since the pre-Curry Golden State era. Whilst I have only included six teams here, if the Suns, Celtics or Nuggets managed to replicate the Heat last year and make it to the Finals I wouldn’t be all that surprised. The league seems stacked with talent on most teams, with perhaps only two or three in each conference that are genuinely bad. We could have some really good playoff series’ this year, and I can’t wait for teams to completely prove me wrong in my predictions. But hey, that’s what sports are about isn’t it.